The role of European health system characteristics in affecting Covid 19 lethality during the early days of the pandemic.

This article examines the main factors affecting COVID-19 lethality across 16 European Countries with a focus on the role of health system characteristics during the first phase of the diffusion of the virus. Specifically, we investigate the leading causes of lethality at 10, 20, 30, 40 days in the first hit of the pandemic. Using a random forest regression (ML), with lethality as outcome variable, we show that the percentage of people older than 65 years (with two or more chronic diseases) is the main predictor variable of lethality by COVID-19, followed by the number of hospital intensive care unit beds, investments in healthcare spending compared to GDP, number of nurses and doctors. Moreover, the variable of general practitioners has little but significant predicting quality. These findings contribute to provide evidence for the prediction of lethality caused by COVID-19 in Europe and open the discussion on health policy and management of health care and ICU beds during a severe epidemic.

Italian responses to the COVID-19 emergency: Overthrowing 30 years of health reforms?

This paper discusses the measures adopted by the Italian government to face the COVID-19 emergency after the first wave in March/April 2020. This study places these measures in light of the massive reform process based on the "managerialism" of healthcare, which started in the 1990s. These reforms, which were inspired by the ideas of 'New Public Management', introduced managerialism, regionalization and quasi-markets to the Italian National Health System. As a result, dramatic changes have been made in public healthcare, and the responsibility for healthcare was decentralized to regions, introducing a multi-level governance structure. The COVID-19 emergency has drawn the results of this approach into question. With the enactment of new decrees, the central government directly intervened in the management of the health system by introducing specific measures aiming to increase the number of hospital beds and personnel, which w previously downsized. We describe the main content of the new measures adopted to face the COVID-19 emergency and discuss how key points of the managerialization process in Italy are being questioned as a result of these measures. The COVID-19 emergency will likely redesign the trajectory of health reforms in Italy and other countries in Europe.